{"id":3874,"date":"2020-06-02T11:50:33","date_gmt":"2020-06-02T09:50:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ecoshape.org\/en\/knowledge-articles\/cause-effect-chain-modelling-of-sand-mining-using-sandwich-terns\/probabilistic-approach-cause-effect-chain-3\/"},"modified":"2020-09-16T12:16:50","modified_gmt":"2020-09-16T10:16:50","slug":"probabilistic-approach-cause-effect-chain-3","status":"publish","type":"knowledge-article","link":"https:\/\/www.ecoshape.org\/en\/knowledge-articles\/cause-effect-chain-modelling-of-sand-mining-using-sandwich-terns\/probabilistic-approach-cause-effect-chain-3\/","title":{"rendered":"Probabilistic Approach \u2013 Cause effect chain"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>This section describes a probabilistic approach to the quantitative modelling of the potential effects of sand mining on tern populations. The method described herein is mainly applicable in the planning and design phases of a dredging project. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In order to model the impact of dredging activities on Sandwich Tern populations, a literature search was carried out to find out how dredging could affect these populations. This literature search led to the cause-effect chain, in which the relations that are expected to influence the population size are visualised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ecoshape.org\/app\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/05\/Cause-effect-chain-dredging_Sandwich-tern.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/><figcaption><em>Cause-effect chain of dredging on Sandwich tern populations<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In short, the cause effect chain starts from an increase of fine sediment concentrations caused by dredging, which leads to an effect on the population size through a decrease in breeding success. The main steps involved leading to this reduction are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>sand extraction by dredging activities causes an increase of the silt concentration in the water column,<\/li><li>the increase of the silt concentration causes an increase in turbidity of the water,<\/li><li>the increase in turbidity reduces the catchability of fish by terns,<\/li><li>the reduced catchability leads to an increase in time needed to catch enough food,<\/li><li>if the available time is a limiting factor, the amount of food brought to the chicks is reduced,<\/li><li>if food intake of the chicks is reduced, the breeding success of the terns decreases.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Van Kruchten &amp; van der Hammen (2011) explain the steps in the cause-effect chain in more detail.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"parent":3066,"menu_order":10,"template":"","class_list":["post-3874","knowledge-article","type-knowledge-article","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Probabilistic Approach \u2013 Cause effect chain - EcoShape<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ecoshape.org\/en\/knowledge-articles\/cause-effect-chain-modelling-of-sand-mining-using-sandwich-terns\/probabilistic-approach-cause-effect-chain-3\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Probabilistic Approach \u2013 Cause effect chain\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This section describes a probabilistic approach to the quantitative modelling of the potential effects of sand mining on tern populations. 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