{"id":3326,"date":"2020-06-02T09:52:54","date_gmt":"2020-06-02T07:52:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ecoshape.org\/en\/tools\/probabilistic-analysis-of-ecological-effects-cause-effect-chain-modeling\/"},"modified":"2020-10-19T18:03:08","modified_gmt":"2020-10-19T16:03:08","slug":"probabilistic-analysis-of-ecological-effects-cause-effect-chain-modeling","status":"publish","type":"tool","link":"https:\/\/www.ecoshape.org\/en\/tools\/probabilistic-analysis-of-ecological-effects-cause-effect-chain-modeling\/","title":{"rendered":"Probabilistic analysis of ecological effects &#8211; Cause-effect chain modeling"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The quantification of ecological effects in Environmental Impact Assessments is mostly done by deterministic modelling of cause-effect chains. However, these cause-effect chains are subject to a large number of uncertainties. Part of them are inherent to natural dynamics, others are caused by a lack of knowledge on the relevant processes. In a deterministic approach, these uncertainties cannot be taken into account and worst-case assumptions have to be made. The accumulation of worst-case assumptions will yield highly conservative estimates of the ultimate effect with an unknown uncertainty margin. A probabilistic approach treats uncertainties differently, which enables incorporating the most relevant ones in the modelling of the ecological effects. A probabilistic approach leads to insight into the probability of occurrence of the possible effects, which can be of use in discussions about the design of the project or the necessity of mitigating and compensating measures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Type: <\/strong>Method<br><strong>Project Phase:<\/strong> Planning &amp; Design, Construction, Operation &amp; maintenance<br><strong>Type of assessment: <\/strong>Impact Assesment<br><strong>Purpose: <\/strong>Assessing the probability of occurrence of adverse effects, to complement deterministic models<br><strong>Requirements: <\/strong>Ecological knowledge<br><strong>Relevant Software:<\/strong> Statistical programmes (eg. R)<strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"455\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ecoshape.org\/app\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/05\/Probabilistic-analysis-of-ecological-effects_fig1-1-1024x455.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1855\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ecoshape.org\/app\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/05\/Probabilistic-analysis-of-ecological-effects_fig1-1-1024x455.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.ecoshape.org\/app\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/05\/Probabilistic-analysis-of-ecological-effects_fig1-1-300x133.png 300w, https:\/\/www.ecoshape.org\/app\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/05\/Probabilistic-analysis-of-ecological-effects_fig1-1-768x342.png 768w, https:\/\/www.ecoshape.org\/app\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/05\/Probabilistic-analysis-of-ecological-effects_fig1-1-1536x683.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.ecoshape.org\/app\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/05\/Probabilistic-analysis-of-ecological-effects_fig1-1-2048x911.png 2048w, https:\/\/www.ecoshape.org\/app\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/05\/Probabilistic-analysis-of-ecological-effects_fig1-1-1200x534.png 1200w, https:\/\/www.ecoshape.org\/app\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/05\/Probabilistic-analysis-of-ecological-effects_fig1-1-1980x881.png 1980w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":179,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","phase":[9,10,11],"tooltype":[18],"type-of-assessment":[14],"class_list":["post-3326","tool","type-tool","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","phase-planning-design","phase-construction","phase-operation-maintenance","tooltype-method","type-of-assessment-impact-assesment"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Probabilistic analysis of ecological effects - Cause-effect chain modeling - EcoShape<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ecoshape.org\/en\/tools\/probabilistic-analysis-of-ecological-effects-cause-effect-chain-modeling\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Probabilistic analysis of ecological effects - Cause-effect chain modeling\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The quantification of ecological effects in Environmental Impact Assessments is mostly done by deterministic modelling of cause-effect chains. 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In a deterministic approach, these [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ecoshape.org\/en\/tools\/probabilistic-analysis-of-ecological-effects-cause-effect-chain-modeling\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EcoShape - EN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/groups\/209018792453642\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-10-19T16:03:08+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ecoshape.org\/app\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2016\/07\/projects-16.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ecoshapeBwn\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ecoshape.org\\\/en\\\/tools\\\/probabilistic-analysis-of-ecological-effects-cause-effect-chain-modeling\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ecoshape.org\\\/en\\\/tools\\\/probabilistic-analysis-of-ecological-effects-cause-effect-chain-modeling\\\/\",\"name\":\"Probabilistic analysis of ecological effects - Cause-effect chain modeling - EcoShape\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ecoshape.org\\\/en\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ecoshape.org\\\/en\\\/tools\\\/probabilistic-analysis-of-ecological-effects-cause-effect-chain-modeling\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ecoshape.org\\\/en\\\/tools\\\/probabilistic-analysis-of-ecological-effects-cause-effect-chain-modeling\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ecoshape.org\\\/app\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2016\\\/07\\\/projects-16.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-06-02T07:52:54+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-10-19T16:03:08+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ecoshape.org\\\/en\\\/tools\\\/probabilistic-analysis-of-ecological-effects-cause-effect-chain-modeling\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ecoshape.org\\\/en\\\/tools\\\/probabilistic-analysis-of-ecological-effects-cause-effect-chain-modeling\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ecoshape.org\\\/en\\\/tools\\\/probabilistic-analysis-of-ecological-effects-cause-effect-chain-modeling\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ecoshape.org\\\/app\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2016\\\/07\\\/projects-16.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ecoshape.org\\\/app\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2016\\\/07\\\/projects-16.jpg\",\"width\":1600,\"height\":1200,\"caption\":\"Projects 14\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ecoshape.org\\\/en\\\/tools\\\/probabilistic-analysis-of-ecological-effects-cause-effect-chain-modeling\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ecoshape.org\\\/en\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Tools\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ecoshape.org\\\/en\\\/tools\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Probabilistic analysis of ecological effects &#8211; 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